CAQM took no learnings from its earlier reactionary ways: Experts

Environmental advocates and public health experts criticised the apparent delay in implementing Stage-3 of the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP), arguing that the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) appears to have lost sight of its primary mission—to act pre-emptively before air emergencies arise, not after.
On Thursday, Delhi entered its second consecutive day of “severe” air quality, making it 48 hours of exposure to toxic air which can not only impact vulnerable groups, but healthy people.
Experts condemned the delay, particularly highlighting the plight of the elderly and children.
In 2022, officials had announced that Grap measures would be made pre-emptive, rather than reactive – meaning under this approach, stages of response would be introduced at least three days before predicted air quality declines.
Previously, CAQM’s sub-committee would wait until AQI touched certain thresholds. For instance, severe-plus measures could only be introduced if AQI remained in “severe plus” zone for 48 hours.
However, the panel’s actions on Thursday suggested a return to the outdated reactive approach.
Bhargav Krishna, coordinator of the Environmental Governance and Policy vertical at the Sustainable Futures Collaborative questioned the very purpose of the CAQM sub-committee, if it did not meet in advance of AQI deteriorating to such levels.
“We need to look at everything. Our forecasts, which are not accurate, and how they feed into proactive implementation of GRAP. We also need to know what means of review CAQM undertakes to ensure continuous improvement in its process,” Krishna said.
On Wednesday, CAQM had forecast an improvement in Delhi’s AQI, predicting a shift to “very poor” by Thursday due to anticipated strong winds. But with air quality remaining in the “severe” category, Stage-3 was eventually triggered late on Thursday.
Sunil Dahiya, founder and lead analyst at the think-tank Envirocatalysts stressed that a stronger forecasting system needs to form the basis of CAQM’s actions.
“Grap is designed as a preemptive system using forecasts based on regional emissions and meteorology. However, the current limitations in accurately predicting pollution levels hinder its effectiveness as a precautionary measure. Enhancing forecast accuracy is essential for timely, proactive action,” he said.
CAQM officials cited unexpected meteorological conditions as a factor in the delay. Arvind Nautiyal, CAQM member secretary said Wednesday’s deterioration was an “episodic event”, with forecasts by both IMD and IITM showing stronger winds likely on Thursday.
“The AQI was supposed to show a declining trend on Thursday and was likely to move back to the Very Poor category. Comprehensively reviewing this scenario, it was accordingly decided by the sub-Committee to keep a close watch on the situation, before invoking these stringent and restrictive measures under stage-3. This stage is to be imposed when the daily average AQI is expected or forecasted to be above the 400 mark for a sufficiently long duration, say three days,” Nautiyal said, stating an improvement was seen from Wednesday night onwards, but on Thursday morning, stagnation was once again recorded due to continued fog, requiring action.
An IITM official acknowledged flaws in their prediction model. “Wednesday’s deterioration was completely missed. The levels surged to unprecedented highs, exceeding even Diwali levels, with particulate matter spiking tenfold within 12 hours,” the official said, attributing much of the increase to pollution from India’s northwest. “We will need to consider dynamic models.”
The Supreme Court’s Environment Pollution (Prevention and Control) Authority, which oversaw air quality control before the CAQM’s formation in 2021, faced similar criticism over delayed implementation of GRAP measures.
Anumita Roychowdhury, executive director, research and advocacy at the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) said forecasting models needed to be utilised better. “Grap measures require stronger application of our forecasting systems to enable proactive action. This needs to be done to prevent rapid worsening of the situation. Reactive and slow responses are not effective and expose people to toxic air,” she said.
IIT-Delhi’s Mukesh Khare also said a delayed implementation helps no one.
“Just like previous years, the damage is already done. This delayed decision shows a non-serious attitude from CAQM,” he said.